Why Groceries Cost More

The Thesis

The squeeze operates from two directions—destroying the land that produces food and defunding the people who need it.

The rate of farmland loss is unsustainable for maintaining food sovereignty.

1. Destroying the Land That Feeds You

Ford's government issued 114 Minister's Zoning Orders between 2019-2023 — 17 times more than the previous 20 years combined. Agricultural land rezoned via MZOs saw an average 46% value increase. The 2024 Provincial Planning Statement further weakened farmland protections, accelerating Ontario's loss of 319 acres of farmland per day.

Ontario's farmland is disappearing at 319 acres per day. The Ford government has issued 114 Minister's Zoning Orders—a 17x increase over the previous 20 years combined—many of them targeting agricultural land for development. The 2024 Provincial Planning Statement replaced the Growth Plan's density targets with weaker language, opening the door to sprawl on Class 1 farmland.

The Auditor General found the MZO process lacked environmental review, public consultation, or agricultural impact assessment. Land values on rezoned parcels jumped 46% on average. The beneficiaries were developers. The cost falls on every Ontarian who buys groceries.

Highway 413—a $10B+ highway through the Greenbelt—will pave over 2,000 acres of farmland and 400+ waterways. The government exempted it from environmental assessment via Bill 212.

114 MZOs. 582,392 acres lost. 319 acres disappearing daily. The farmland that feeds Ontario is being paved for developers.

2. Hydro Bills Become Grocery Bills

Ontario's electricity pricing decisions cascade through the entire food chain — from farm to processor to cold storage to grocery shelf. Ford cancelled 758 renewable energy contracts ($231M in penalties), while $118.1B in electricity subsidies over 20 years props up a system where energy is one of the largest input costs for Ontario food producers.

This is the connection most people don't see. Electricity is a direct input cost at every stage of the food chain: irrigation and greenhouse heating on the farm, refrigeration and processing in the plant, cold storage in distribution, lighting and refrigeration on the retail floor. When hydro rates go up, food prices follow.

Electricity is a top-three operating expense for Ontario farms (Ontario Federation of Agriculture). Food processors pay industrial rates. Cold chain logistics run 24/7. Every step passes costs to the shelf.

Meanwhile, the government is carrying $118.1 billion in electricity subsidies over 20 years (FAO) and paid $231 million in cancellation penalties for scrapping renewable contracts—costs that flow back to ratepayers and taxpayers alike. The decision to cancel cap-and-trade cost Ontario $3 billion in revenue that could have funded targeted relief.

Full investigation: Hydro Bills Become Grocery Bills →

3. People Can't Afford to Eat

Over 1 million unique Ontarians used a food bank in 2024-25 — a 165% increase since Ford took office. Ontario Works has been frozen at $733/month since 2018 despite 23%+ inflation, pushing record numbers to food banks the province doesn't adequately fund.

The numbers are staggering. In 2024, 1,007,441 unique Ontarians visited a food bank—a 165% increase since Ford took office. One in three clients are children. Two in three food banks report they may not be able to sustain operations.

Ontario Works has been frozen at $733 per month since 2018. Over the same period, food prices rose over 23%. A single person on OW falls $18,874 per year below the poverty line. ODSP recipients fare little better. The Ford government cancelled a planned 3% increase in 2018 and has never restored it.

Ontario spends 10 cents per student per day on school food — the lowest in Canada and a quarter of the national median. Despite a $108.5M federal deal, Ford's government hasn't increased its own core investment in a decade, leaving 2 million+ students underserved.

Ontario's school food spending amounts to 10 cents per student per day—a quarter of the 39-cent national median. Core provincial investment has been unchanged for a decade. When the federal government launched a national school food program, Ontario was the last province to sign on and has not matched the funding.

Consider the contrast: Highway 413 will cost taxpayers over $10 billion. A universal school food program for Ontario would cost roughly $150 million per year. One highway through farmland costs more than 65 years of feeding every student in the province.

One highway through farmland costs more than 65 years of feeding every student in the province.

4. The Blame Game

Throughout the food affordability crisis, the Ford government has pointed at the federal carbon tax as the primary driver of grocery costs. The rhetoric is simple: axe the tax, lower the price. But the Parliamentary Budget Officer found the carbon tax accounts for roughly 0.3% of food price increases—a fraction of what supply chain disruptions, corporate margins, and provincial policy decisions contribute.

While blaming Ottawa, the province sits on a stack of levers it refuses to pull.

Things Ford Could Do Tomorrow

• Raise Ontario Works above the poverty line. Current rates leave recipients $18,874/year short. Even indexing to inflation would cost a fraction of Highway 413.
• Match federal school food funding. The national program exists. Ontario just needs to meet its share. Instead, it spends 10 cents per student per day.
• Restrict MZOs on Class 1 agricultural land. The Auditor General recommended it. The government has not acted.
• Targeted electricity relief for food producers. Greenhouse operators and food processors pay industrial rates that flow directly to shelf prices. Other provinces offer agricultural rate programs.
• Increase food bank operating grants. Two in three food banks say they may not survive. Provincial grants have not kept pace with demand.

The gap between the rhetoric and the action is the story. The federal carbon tax is a convenient target. But farmland MZOs, frozen assistance, underfunded school food, and cancelled renewable contracts are all provincial decisions. The squeeze is made in Ontario.

The carbon tax adds 0.3% to food costs. Provincial decisions add the rest.

5. The Full Chain

Each link is documented. From farmland destruction to food bank lineups, the chain traces how supply-side and demand-side failures compound into a single crisis: